triclops6@lemmy.catoScience Memes@mander.xyz•Probability.... Need I say more?!English
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10 months agoThat last part is what the Bayesian scientist is wagering on, it’s not missing, as op suggested
That last part is what the Bayesian scientist is wagering on, it’s not missing, as op suggested
Former r/fountainpens Reddit refugee here, and I agree 1.5m users doesn’t generate the kind of traffic for my hobby to figure in any sort of way. I miss the engagement
Sorry for your election :(
Most --> moet autocorrect suggests you are a combination of French, a drinker, or rich
I have no dog in the tablet trace however
Yyyyyup
Was about to say the NES just plugged in and goes! And then realized that if I wrote that, people would read it.
Nice one
The intuition is exactly your argument:
When the machine says yes it’s either because
(1) the sun went nova (vanishingly small chance) and machine rolled truth (prob 35/36) – the joint probability of this (the product) is near zero
OR
(2) sun didn’t go nova (prob of basically one) and machine rolled lie (prob 1/36) – joint prob near 1/36
Think of joint probability as the total likelihood. It is much more likely we are in scenario 2 because the total likelihood of that event (just under 1/36) is astronomically higher than the alternative (near zero)
I’m skipping stuff but hopefully my words make clear what they math doesn’t always