Ben Matthews

  • New here on lemmy, will add more info later …
  • Also on mdon: @benjhm@scicomm.xyz
  • Try my interactive climate / futures model: SWIM
  • 0 Posts
  • 51 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: September 15th, 2023

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  • I use vscode as I develop this model in Scala3, whose language-server ‘metals’ integrates well with vscode, and when scala3 was new in mid-21 this was the platform they first targeted. But the scala command-line tools do the clever analysis, vscode provides the layout, colours, git integration, search/regex, web-preview etc… Now considering other options (eg zed) as vscode too dependent on potentially unsafe extensions (of which too much choice), also don’t want M$ scraping my code. Long ago when same model was in java I used netbeans, then eclipse. Would prefer a pure-scala toolset.





  • Even if we had low-emissions, low-noise, low-accident cars, there’d still be the concrete jungle surface needed to drive them - and loads of emissions to make the steel and cement of highways.
    Although cars carrying four or more people directly to a medium-distance destination can be relatively efficient per pers-km, people buy oversized cars imagining some dream holiday, then use them for daily life on one-person trips that (electric-) bicycles and/or trains could do - car-sharing could help avoid that and solve the EV-range issue (although personally, my dream holidays would be in places with no cars at all).


  • Hi, excuse me for replying so late, but i’ve been away from lemmy for.a while. Well, to summarise, the model calculates the future trajectories, of population, economy, emissions, atmospheric gases, and climate response etc., according to a set of (hundreds of) diverse options and uncertainties which you can adjust - the key feature is that the change shows rapidly enough to let you follow cause -> effect, to understand how the system responds in a quasi-mechanical way.
    Indeed you are right, complexity is beautiful, but hard. A challenge with such tools is to adjust gradually from simple to complex. Although SWIM has four complexity levels, they are no longer systematically implemented - also what seems simple or complex varies depending where each person is coming from, so i think to adapt the complexity filter into a topic-focus filter. Much todo …


  • I can relate to this, having developed a coupled socio-emissions-carbon-climate model, which evolved for 20 years in java, until recently converted to scala3. You can have a look here. The problem is that “coupling” in such models of complex systems is a ‘good’ thing, as there are feedbacks - for example atmospheric co2 drives climate warming but the latter also changes the carbon cycle, demography drives economic growth but the latter influences fertility and migration, etc… (some feedbacks are solved by extrapolating from the previous timestep - the delay is anyway realistic). There are also policy feedbacks - between top-down climate-stabilisation goals, and bottom up trends and national policies, the choice affects the logical calculation order. All this has to work fast within the browser (now scala.js - originally java applet), responding interactively to parameter adjustments, only recalculating curves which changed - getting all these interactions right is hard.
    If restarting in scala3 I’d structure it differently, but having a lot of legacy science code known to work, it’s hard to pull it apart. Wish I’d known such principles at the beginning, but as it grew gradually, one doesn’t anticipate such complexity.


  • Indeed, as I mentioned in my main comment

    Some of the ‘mandates’ are far too easily implemented.

    At least that one requires a ‘parliament majority’ - otoh big groups are not in that parliament at all… Actually ‘ungrowth’ in the north may just happen anyway, slowly, for demographic reasons.
    Maybe this type of game could provide a structure to help people to debate factors, if could vary (packages of) assumptions… ?
    As it is, might encourage some to wait for a revolution rather than engaging current options.




  • Sure, but this is also a real game we need to win (well, maybe not <1C in that timeframe) , and we only get one chance to play. This example helps people learn, but there are things to adjust.
    Another (I didn’t mention above) is that construction (including new energy, ‘green’ cities etc.) takes massive time, energy, materials - it’s not clear that’s sufficiently taken into account, and likewise not by real “socialist” planners.



  • OK, so I tried this, able to win on the second round. :-)
    First time you risk to do some things too early, others you must do early, but I won’t spoil the challenge by giving details.
    Good emphasis on land-use limitations.

    Concept is nicer than ‘fate of the world’ which was rather similar (and even fotw told me their idea was partly inspired by an idea on my website about 23 years ago). Both this and fotw based on ‘cards’, while prefer to adjust levers gradually, and see graphs move in real-time.
    (btw going back even further, does anybody remember ‘lincity’ )?

    Some things confusing - e.g. you adjust percentages not totals, but totals change, which hits limits in not-obvious ways. No mention of space-heating challenge eg heat-pumps (suggests made in tropics?), no modal-shift in transport (except inside cities). I’d like to see whether the numbers reflect current emissions of China, and Arabia (I doubt it, doesn’t fit the ‘south is good’ narrative). Overall I suspect that the calculations are too optimistic, but can’t say more without detailed plots of changes over time, or a view of the engine code.

    But biggest unrealities:

    • We don’t have such a scenario - there is no global planner - “god games” are too easy concept.
    • The fraction of contrarians is larger (than the 3 groups I couldn’t satisfy in this game), maybe increasing (?).
    • Some of the ‘mandates’ are far too easily implemented.

    I ponder how to design a game which is more realistic in these respects.
    Having said that, I think the ‘magic card’ has some merits, if everybody would play, maybe that helps tip the balance.