chonk

That or dumb money is just dumb, and if the cost of money is free, you can just guess at things that might work with thousands of monkeys hitting typewriters.

Quick, send 200 billionaires to Mars to confirm this.

So I don’t know if I got a picture, but I was at a local beach right at sunset, and we had this moment where, for like just a moment, the entire valley behind us lit up with rainbows. Not a double rainbow, but like 5+ deep ‘double’ rainbows. It was utterly surreal.

I mean check my post history

Yeah, like. There it is.

Sometimes I wish we had county level polling days, other-times, i’m glad we can’t analyze things this granularly.

New cat just dropped

…and no one evvver read it…

🫑

That being said go ahead and pirate, I’m not your dad

What am I letters on a screen? I’m not going to stop you.

SHHHHh teacher is going to hear

whispers across the aisle: (its the powerhouse of the cell)

beans

None of what I’m saying is speculation, and you are a buffoon.

I mean…

No. It’s not margin of error right now. It’s a clear Trump W. Not once you account for Trump’s consistent over performance and Bidens consistent underperformance relative to polling aggregates. Everyone with eyes has been seeing it for better than a year.

I’m not interested in your questions because your views aren’t aligned with reality or supported by the data…

You can project whatever narrative you want into the data but what is I’m saying is fundamentally the case.

Trump outperforms his polling. He did so in 2016 by a wide margin, and he did so again in 2020. You can just go look at the week prior polling. This isn’t some grandiose fiction it’s a statement of fact, that you seem to be ignorant to.

Your interest in a particular narrative doesn’t change what is. What matters is that Biden needs around an 8% lead on Trump nationally to be secure, and has been trailing, basically the entire time.

If the election were tomorrow, and we believe the offsets observed in the two previous national elections, and we should because those were real events made from real data, then Biden would lose in a landslide today.

Because I can’t stand all of your group think naivete:

I went and pulled the 2020 data. The above is the relative error in polling from polls during the months of October and November 2020, calculated against the real votes cast in 2020. Biden underperforms his polling by about 4% and Trump overperforms his polling by about 8%. You can argue with why this is the case, but you can-not pretend that this isn’t the case. You should be adjusting how you see polls with this in mind. When you see Biden trailing Trump in national polling (and he has been for 400 days in a row), you should see that as a CLEAR Trump lead considering that Trump CONSISTENTLY overperforms on election day relative to his polling.

Sources: https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/42MVDX

https://electionlab.mit.edu/data

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/data/president_polls_historical.csv

it’s not really.that close.whem you compare it to 2016/2020

Trump underpolls significantly,.by 5-8%, and did for both 2016 and 2020.

Bidens hasn’t led trump in polling in 500 days

Bro he’s been the front runner the entire time.

This is why people’s sycophantica for Biden are so problematic. !data_vizualisations@lemmy.world

Trump also seems to understand poll at about 8%

Which means Biden needs to be leading by that amount to win.