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Cake day: July 9th, 2023

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  • What is the breaker box in your analogy? Breaking legs?

    lol I meant a [circuit] breaker box (aka power/ac panel, breaker panel, distribution board, etc)

    So how do you suspend a license that the guy didn’t have?

    It’s just a minor legal misnomer. If a defendant happens to not have a driver’s license in the first place, suspension could be more accurately termed “prevention.” Logistically speaking, the state probably just generates a stub file/account with a valid license number then just adds the suspension to that empty driving record.









  • Didn’t see others mention yet: if that’s compressor oil, it’ll smell. Even after airing out on the towel for a while the solvent smell will be there. (Edit: also I’ve never recovered from a fridge but the dirtiest oil I’ve seen was more brown than inky black.)

    If not though, then I’d be very curious. Soy sauce? Balsamic vinegar? Cuttlefish sachet? KM? …Prune juice?



  • Maybe yeah. Also got the sense from the strong opinions that this is a preexisting debate, presumably in the context of continuous workloads or cached arrays with minimal spindown intervals. In that context it’s true that rotational disks still often win in energy efficiency and robustness (assuming we’re comparing them to consumer SSDs and not the latest enterprise u.2 stuff that’s rated for continuous work).




  • Not sure what everyone is arguing about here. Clearly SSD is better for intermittent r/w, whereas HDD can be more efficient at continuous r/w (especially in terms of watts/TB)

    Just looking at specs should be enough to see that. SSDs can idle in ready state at close to 0 draw (~0.05w) whereas HDD requires continued rotation to remain ready. So consider an extreme case of writing for 1 minute then maintaining ready state for the rest of the day. For that the SSD will be far more efficient, obviously.


  • True, and interesting since this can be used as a statistical lever to ignore the exponential scaling effect of conditional probability, with a minor catch.

    Lemma: Compartmentalization can reduce, even eliminate, chance of exposure introduced by conspirators.

    Proof: First, we fix a mean probability p of success (avoiding accidental/deliberate exposure) by any privy to the plot.

    Next, we fix some frequency k1, k2, … , kn of potential exposure events by each conspirators 1, …, n over time t and express the mean frequency as k.

    Then for n conspirators we can express the overall probability of success as

    1 ⋅ ptk~1~ ⋅ ptk~2~ ⋅ … ⋅ ptk~n~ = pntk

    Full compartmentalization reduces n to 1, leaving us with a function of time only ptk. ∎

    Theorem: While it is possible that there exist past or present conspiracies w.h.p. of never being exposed:

    1. they involve a fairly high mortality rate of 100%, and
    2. they aren’t conspiracies in the first place.

    Proof: The lemma holds with the following catch.

    (P1) ptk is still exponential over time t unless the sole conspirator, upon setting a plot in motion w.p. pt~1~k = pk, is eliminated from the function such that pk is the final (constant) probability.

    (P2) For n = 1, this is really more a plot by an individual rather than a proper “conspiracy,” since no individual conspires with another. ∎





  • If we flip a fair coin once, the odds of not getting tails is 50%. If we flip twice, the odds diminish to 25%. Flip 20 times, the odds diminish to 0.000001%.

    This is the conditional probability that makes the concealment of large and/or longterm conspiracies implausible: we say that the odds of getting heads on the 100th toss, conditioned on the probability of having already gotten heads 99 times, is less than a billion billion billion to one.

    And the grander the conspiracy, i.e. the more individuals involved, the more “coin flips” regularly occur, and the faster these infinitesimal odds are reached — hence the expression “too many minions spoil the plot.”

    So while mistakes are indeed unsurprising, the fact that none have ever uncovered big old conspiracies (especially the likes of flat earth, fake moon landing, aliens, etc.) suggests the odds of their veracity are, at this point, vanishingly small.